#151
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Some 33% of intending investors said they were likely to invest in ETFs over the coming year, up from 21% in 2023.
33%General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 61
Institutional Wire
Views
1147 evidence-backed views published in the latest 7 days, newest first with same-topic and same-event views grouped together.
Each line is one claim extracted from one report: what the publisher expects, in which direction, on which asset, over what horizon. How views are extracted · By asset · By topic
#152
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Australian-listed shares remain the most likely investment at 41%.
41%General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 61
#153
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
(set out in Article 49(2)of the Order; (c) other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated in accordance with the Order or (d) any persons to whom it may otherwise lawfully be made (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”).
49General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 61
#154
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
The material may contain an ‘investment recommendation’ and/or ‘information recommending or suggesting an investment’, both as defined in Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 (including as applicable in the United Kingdom) (“MAR”).
596General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 61
#155
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
French Presidential Elections: A Primer 15October 2026 French Presidential Elections CROSS EXPERTISE 2 Contents Political and macroeconomic Outlook ................................
15General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 58
#156
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
24 French Covered Bonds Likely to Maintain AAA Ratings in the Event of a Sovereign Downgrade ................................
24General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 58
#157
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
This deadline will mechanically restrict the list of candidates, as this threshold is difficult to clear for candidates lacking a solid local electoral footprint 1 .
1General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 58
#158
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
It is important to note that the eve of the second -round falls on 1 May, International Workers' Day in France, a day typically characterised by height ened political activity and significant trade union mobilisation.
1General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 58
#159
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
The next President of the Republic will take office on 14 May 2027, the date on which President E.
14General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 58
#160
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Should the incoming President opt for snap elections, the legislative ballot must be held within twenty to forty days following dissolution, with a first round scheduled for 6, 13 or 20 June 2027.
6,General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 58
#161
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
According to recent polling institute estimates 3 ,Marine Le Pen (National Rally) reaches the second round in all scenarios tested.
3General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 58
#162
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Her first -round voting intentions currently hover between 32and 3 5% (See Chart 1 & 2 and Table 1 ).
32General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 58
#163
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Lisnard (liberal right) rarely poll sabove 3% in surveys but is highly likely to secure the 500 sponsorships required to sustain his candidacy and is credited with amore than 10% chance of victory on alternative online prediction platforms.
3%General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 58
#164
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
More candidates are running for the 2027 elections, see France: Q&A Less Than a Year Ahead of the French Presidential Election .
2027General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 58
#165
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
With the 2027 presidential election just under six months away, polling data at this stage of the electoral cycle should be treated with due caution.
2027General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 58
#166
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Chart 1: Main potential candidates for the presidential election Chart 2: Main potential candidates for the presidential election Sources: Toluna -Harris (29 May –12 October), Natixis CIB Sources: Ifop (26 June –2 October), Natixis CIB Furthermore, in several recent Presidential elections, the eventual winner was a late -emerging candidate.
1General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 58
#167
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
1WESTPAC ECONOMICS WESTPAC MARKET OUTLOOK October 2026 Your monthly report on Australia and the global economy.
1General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 54
#168
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
22 Europe & UK Concerns over Europe’s outlook 24 Summary forecast tables Australia – financial 26 Australia – economic 27 New Zealand 28 Commodity prices 29 United States 30 Europe 31 Asia 32 Global growth 33 westpaciq.com.au WESTPAC MARKET OUTLOOK October 2026 CONTENTS Westpac Market Outlook is a monthly publication produced by Westpac Economics.
22General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 54
#169
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Saxo Bank's view on ASML is bullish: the company raised its annual sales guidance, with customers planning equipment orders extending towards 2029 and 2030.
2029General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 67Fresh 54
English source evidence
• ASML: Raised its annual sales guidance, with customers planning equipment orders extending towards 2029 and 2030.
#170
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
This is playing out as we anticipated in our Q4 outlook, “Raise the Bar,” where we highlighted the cost of capital as an increasingly important driver of the AI trade.
4General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 67Fresh 54
#171
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
September 2026 Labour Force Survey Westpac Economics Key Results – 39.3k Employment Change Surprised materially to downside, but some residual seasonality could be in the mix.September 2026: Looking shakier Westpac Chart Pack –September 2026 Labour Force Survey 4.7% Unemployment Rate Continues to slowly drift higher as labour supply outstrips demand.
2026General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 54
#172
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
But in 10% of cases, Cartwright said, that limited escalation could spiral out of control.
10%General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 54
#173
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
In contrast, new RMB loans under the TSF measure totalled RMB1.27tn, down RMB334.2bn YoY, remaining the main drag on overall credit expansion.
1.27tnGeneral★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 54
#174
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Despite the stronger-than- expected headline figures, outstanding TSF growth edged down by 0.1ppt to 7.1% YoY, suggesting that the underlying credit impulse remains weak.
0.1General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 54
#175
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Separately, Economy Minister Akmal Nasrullah Mohd Nasir said the government aims to create 500,000 job opportunities through AI initiatives, alongside efforts to upgrade workforce skills and expand high growth, high value industries.
500,000General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 54
#176
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
PH: The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) expects the country’s balance of payments (BOP) to remain in deficit at USD9.2bn (1.8% of GDP) in 2026, before narrowing to USD8.5bn (1.6% of GDP) in 2027, amid subdued global growth, geopolitical tensions, and elevated energy costs.
9.2bnGeneral★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 54
#177
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Meanwhile, the current account deficit is projected at USD19.1bn (3.8% of GDP) in 2026 and to remain broadly stable at USD19.4bn (3.6% of GDP) in 2027, driven mainly by elevated fuel and commodity prices, although import growth is expected to moderate amid weaker domestic demand.
19.1bnGeneral★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 54
#178
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Electronics exports, services receipts, and remittances are expected to provide some support, but will not be "sufficient to fully offset the trade ‑driven deficit, ”leaving net financial inflows of USD11.4bn in 2026 and USD11.8bn in 2027 to partly finance the shortfall.
11.4bnGeneral★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 54
#179
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Gross international reserves are expected to remain above USD100bn in both years, providing "a critical buffer against external shocks.” AU: Australia’s NAB business confidence index fell further into negative territory in September, declining 4 points to -13, some 18 points below its long-run average and its third consecutive monthly decline.
100bnGeneral★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 54
#180
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Meanwhile the business conditions index remained unchanged at -1, below its long run average of 7.
1,General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 54
#181
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
The probability is still lower at just 29% but it has increased from just 17% at the end of last week.
29%General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 54
#182
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
QPETRO still has sellers of 29s (-0.125pt/+2bp) but started to see buyers in long end, 41s closing -0.25pt/+0bp.
29General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 54
#183
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Australia shed 39,300 jobs in September against an expected 20,000 gain, and unemployment held at 4.7%, the highest since October 2021.
39,300General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 67Fresh 54
#184
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Risk sentiment has deteriorated markedly, weighing on Asian equities: the Nikkei 225 is 5.13% lower at 64,267.09 after finishing Wednesday near 67,744, and the Hang Seng is down 1.47% at 23,955.59 with its technology sub-index 2.94% weaker, an overall bearish market stance.
225General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 67Fresh 54
English source evidence
The Nikkei 225 is 5.13% lower at 64,267.09 after finishing Wednesday near 67,744, and the Hang Seng is down 1.47% at 23,955.59, its technology sub-index 2.94% weaker.
#185
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
HSBC cut its end-2026 targets for the mainland indices by 9% to 15%, tighter global liquidity cited.
2026General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 67Fresh 54
#186
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
The Singapore desk had the Kospi 5.7% lower around 03:00 CET.
5.7%General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 67Fresh 54
#187
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
The headline rose 0.1% more than expected to 3.7% YoY vs. 3.4% in August.
0.1%General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 67Fresh 54
#188
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
From here, the focus higher could center on the prior range low of 1.1325 and then into the 38.2% Fib retracement near 1.1340, but the bar is quite high for a full reversal, which would require something like the 1.1500 area to come into play and it is far too soon to bring that kind of level into the picture.
1.1325General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 67Fresh 54
#189
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
That effect has clearly faded, with production in the chemical sector now 1.7% lower than in January.
1.7%General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 54
#190
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
The other 12 all expected one further rate rise this year.
12General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 54
#191
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
That still points to rate cuts from late 2027 and into 2028.
2027General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 54
#192
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government remains set on a domestic demand push, and we have a slight preference that the next two hikes are backloaded into January and April, right before the consumption tax rate on food is cut to 1% from 8%.
1%General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 54
#193
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Household energy prices rose 0.6% MoM, below our 1.2% forecast.
0.6%General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 54
#194
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Meanwhile, food prices were flat MoM, below our 0.3% forecast.
0.3%General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 54
#195
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Recreation surprised to the upside, rising 0.5% MoM versus our 0.2% forecast.
0.5%General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 54
#196
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
However, this was partly offset by a weaker than expected 0.2% increase in education and communication, versus our 0.4% forecast, as communication prices fell 0.2% MoM.
0.2%General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 54
#197
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Other sticky categories offered a more mixed picture, with education up 0.6% MoM, communication down 0.2% and household furnishings flat.
0.6%General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 84Fresh 54
#198
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
VIX 16.87, 20-day realised volatility 10.04%, stable, the index within 0.15% of its 50-day average.
16.87General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 67Fresh 54
#199
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Option-implied expected move for each report day against the average move after the last eight reports, with implied-volatility rank and last close, as of 15 October 2026.
15General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 67Fresh 54
#200
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Tail risk signal: SKEW at 157.30 is the highest in our stored series, above all 60 previous sessions; far downside protection got dearer on a day the 30-day measure added only 1.60 points, a bearish/risk-hedging signal.
157.30General★★★Heat 50 · 17 inst.Authority 67Fresh 54
English source evidence
• Tail risk signal: SKEW at 157.30 is the highest in our stored series, above all 60 previous sessions: far downside protection got dearer on a day the 30-day measure added only 1.60 points.
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