Institutional Wire

Views

1335 evidence-backed views published in the latest 7 days, newest first with same-topic and same-event views grouped together.

Each line is one claim extracted from one report: what the publisher expects, in which direction, on which asset, over what horizon. How views are extracted · By asset · By topic

#9516d

MUFGbearishunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXYOctober 2026

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

1 14th October 2026 More volatile market conditions remains the key risk 14 th October 2026 USD: Energy & AI risks to volatility G10 FX volatility is starting to turn lower again after the recent spike higher as the US dollar strengthened in response to the surge in sovereign bond yields.

1US Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#9526d

MUFGneutralunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXYunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

THE 3MTH ANNUALISED CORE PCE INFLATION RATE HAS FALLEN STEADILY TO HIT THE 2% FED TARGET RATE IN AUGUST Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, MUFG Research USD: CPI data release a key momentum for rates & FX The main macroeconomic event arrives today with the release of the September CPI data.

3US Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#9536d

MUFGneutralunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXYnear-term

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Near-term though the Fed look set to hike again and any upside surprise in today’s data would likely trigger another rates sell-off and extend the dollar further stronger.

US Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#9546d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXYunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Nevertheless, we expect the Singapore dollar to continue outperforming its regional peers, supported by Singapore's resilient macroeconomic fundamentals.

US Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#9556d

ING THINKbullishunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXYunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

EUR/USD may retest recent lows before any recovery We expect month-on-month US CPI to be 0.1pp higher than consensus in both headline and core today We have published the October edition of FX Talking: Au revoir, euro bulls, with updated FX forecasts and views.

0.1US Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#9566d

ING THINKbullishunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXYshort-term

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

USD: Upside risks persist The dollar had a soft session yesterday as stretched positioning and short-term overvaluation coincided with a recovery in global bonds.

US Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#9576d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXYunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

For this reason, we expect some dollar re-strengthening today.

US Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#9586d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXYunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

We have a one-month target of 1.13 in EUR/USD, but we could still re-test the 1.1150-1.1160 area in the coming days.

1.13US Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#9596d

ING THINKbullishunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXYunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

As discussed in the USD section above, we see upside risks for USD today as US CPI is released.

US Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#9606d

MUFGbearishunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXYunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Turkey’s current account returns to surplus, CBRT remains cautious .Turkey recorded a USD 4.05bn current account surplus in August, driven by strong seasonal tourism revenues and a narrower trade deficit as lower energy prices reduced import costs.

4.05bnUS Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#9616d

MUFGbullishunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXYunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

The improved external position contributed to a build-up in FX reserves during July-August, although the central bank has since sold USD 10.8bn in reserves since September to support TRY liquidity.

10.8bnUS Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#9627d

MUFGbullishunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXYOctober 2026

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

13 October 2026 Market Highlights Amidst a general environment of a stronger Dollar and somewhat weaker risk sentiment, the big move in the Asian currencies has been the Indian Rupee, with spot onshore INR strengthening by 1% against the US dollar over the past day.

13US Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 84Fresh 38

#9637d

MUFGconditionalunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXYnext year

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

We are forecasting USD/INR to gradually rise higher to 97.50 by the September quarter next year, with RBI likely to take more measures if INR were to weaken further from here.

97.50US Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 84Fresh 38

#9647d

OCBC ResearchneutralunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXYunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

The Bloomberg Asia USD Investment Grade spread traded flat at 60bps, and the Asia USD High Yield spread also traded flat at 359bps, indicating a neutral credit market sentiment.

60bpUS Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 84Fresh 38

English source evidence

• Bloomberg Asia USD Investment Grade spread traded flat at 60bps, and the Asia USD High Yield spreads also traded flat at 359bps.

#9656d

MUFGneutralunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXYOctober 2026

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

In its JPY Weekly dated 13 October 2026, MUFG asks "USD/JPY: How long will the current range hold?", examining how long the prevailing USD/JPY range can persist, but the fragment provides no specific levels, range boundaries or directional call, so no stance on the US Dollar (DXY) can be determined from it.

1US Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 84Fresh 38

English source evidence

1 JPY Weekly │13 October 2026 JPY Weekly USD/JPY: How long will the current range hold?

#9666d

MUFGconditionalunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXYunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

We expect broad dollar strength would likely push the USD/JPY above its closely watched 200 -day moving average if the CPI and Chair Warsh's speech instead trigger a sharp reversal in expectations and markets once again come to expect an October hike.

200US Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 84Fresh 38

#9676d

MUFGneutralunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXYunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

With President Donald Trump also expressing concern about yen undervaluation, her remarks could be read as signaling that the authorities would not tolerate a sustained rise in the USD/JPY above 160.

160US Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 84Fresh 38

#9687d

MUFGbullishunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXYOctober 2026

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

1 13th October 2026 JPY continues to trade on stronger footing alongside USD 13 th October 2026 JPY: Heightened intervention risk & BoJ policy normalization remain in focus The yen has strengthened modestly overnight resulting in USD/JPY moving back closer towards the 158.00-level.

1US Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 84Fresh 38

#9697d

MUFGbullishunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXYunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

The heightened risk of further intervention from Japan to support the yen is still helping to curtail upside for USD/JPY even as the US dollar continues to strengthen against other major currencies.

US Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 84Fresh 38

#9707d

MUFGneutralunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXYunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

In the current environment of broad-based US dollar strength, we expect the yen to continue to perform better against non-US dollar crosses.

US Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 84Fresh 38

#9717d

MUFGbullishunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXY2026

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

It is currently the highest policy rate amongst G10 central banks which helped the Australian dollar to outperform in 2026 alongside the Norwegian krone.

10US Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 84Fresh 38

#9727d

MUFGconditionalunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXYunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

RBA officials displayed concern that the Australian dollar could weaken going forward if overseas central banks played catch up by increasingly moving to raise rates which could add to upside risks in Australia.

US Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 84Fresh 38

#9736d

PIMCOneutralunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXYunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

In other words, the marginal dollar of capital is increasingly being deployed into loans with wider spreads, lower leverage, greater borrower equity support, and stronger debt-servicing capacity.

US Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 100Fresh 38

#9746d

State StreetbearishunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXYunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

In that context, the US dollar stands out as the currency most likely to break higher and the euro as the most likely to break lower.

US Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 84Fresh 38

#9756d

State StreetbullishunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXYunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Strong employment and consumption growth, high yields, elevated energy prices, and impressive corporate earnings growth provided a solid foundation for September’s US dollar rally and point to increasing potential for it to break higher out of its 18-month range.

18US Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 84Fresh 38

#9767d

MUFGbearishunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXYOctober 2026

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

1 13 October 2026 Seasonal improvement in current account likely not enough for CBRT 13 October 2026 EMERGING MARKET MACROECONOMICS Turkey ’s current account balance moved into surplus in August at USD 4.05bn, supported by a seasonal increase in the services surplus related to tourism flows and a narrower goods deficit thanks to lower energy prices during the month.

1US Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 84Fresh 38

#9777d

MUFGneutralunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXY2025

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

AI Capex AI Capex Forecasts (2025-2032) World’s largest economies (2026 GDP) vs. global AI capex spend, USD tn The Global Competition for Capital / OCT 2026 / page 40 AI Capex Supercycle in Historical Context Source: (1) WSJ, “The AI Build -Out is Becoming the Biggest Economic Bet in US History.” Brookings Institution, “Financing the AI Buildout” (Stijn van Nieuwerburgh).

2025US Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 84Fresh 38

#9787d

MUFGneutralunclassifiedUS Dollar (DXY) · DXY2026

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

2026 projected AI investment by region (infrastructure, software & services), USD tn China $355 bn UK $205 bn Germany $180 bn Japan $155 bn France $110 bn India $95 bn Saudi Arabia $85 bn S.

2026US Dollar (DXY)★★★Heat 50 · 9 inst.Authority 84Fresh 38

#97919h 14m

MUFGneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

A potential Fed pause in October may temporarily ease the external pressure, but we do not think it is sufficient to reverse the rupiah trend while Indonesia-specific risks are increasing.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 89

#98012h 37m

Saxo BankneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FED2023

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

The Fed lifted rates to 3.75% to 4% in September, its first increase since 2023, and most officials still expect one more this year with the next meeting due on 28 October.

3.75%Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 67Fresh 89

#98112h 24m

MUFGbullishunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Despite the stronger US inflation d ata, which further highlights the limited progress towards the Fed’s inflation objective, market participants have been reluctant to price in a more hawkish policy path.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 89

#9827h 14m

Saxo BankneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Federal Reserve Chair Warsh said hotter inflation had not changed his outlook, which was read as reducing the odds of an increase on 28 October.

28Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 67Fresh 89

#98312h 40m

ING THINKbearishunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Markets appear to have a clear reaction function in mind: stock market turmoil is enough to drastically reduce Federal Reserve tightening plans, even with inflation running hot.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 89

#98412h 40m

ING THINKbullishunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

A December Fed hike remains a likely outcome; policymakers do not appear to be in a position to send a dovish message at the October meeting, and still-elevated energy prices argue against a material recovery in global bond markets.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 89

#98512h 40m

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Downside risk continues to stem from France, although it has abated somewhat as of late, while the upside comes from further AI concerns hitting Fed rate expectations.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 89

#9863h 36m

AmundineutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDthis week

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Overall, the report leaves the Fed questioning how much progress is being made on underlying inflation, keeping further rate hikes on the table.Europe Several members of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, speaking at the IMF meetings in Bangkok this week, indicated that further interest rate rises may be necessary.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 89

#9873d

NatixisneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

US inflation drifted higher in September, but Fed speakers have suggested that a pause is more likely than not; a neutral-to-dovish view on Fed policy.

Fed Policy★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 62

English source evidence

But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them ” -Frank Herbert, Dune ► US inflation drifted higher in September, but Fed speakers have suggested that apause ismore likely than not.

#9883d

NatixisneutralunclassifiedFed Policy · FEDunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation